Bush 41 and McCain
For all the talk of tying McCain to Bush 43 I am starting to think he is much closer to Bush 41. Both Bush Sr and McCain had long records of being moderate Republicans. They both ran against the president they were attempting to succeed. Bush ran against Reagan and called his tax cuts voodoo economics in 1980. McCain similarly was against Bush Jr’s tax cuts in 2000. Both ran again for president 8 years later. Both had to change many of their policy positions to make the conservative supporters of the sitting president happy. In other words they are both moderate Republicans at heart but trying to act like true conservatives. For both of them it led to a very negative campaign style. They could not talk about conservatism with any passion or conviction so they simply attacked, attacked, and attacked. For Bush Sr it worked. He got elected. The conservatives who supported him were not really thrilled with his presidency. Pat Buchanon was upset enough to run against Bush in 1992. In fact Bush Sr’s whole presidency was quite muddled because he was not sure who he was. Was he a moderate or was he a conservative?
I think McCain will be as muddled if he wins. He will do something to get conservatives upset at him. His VP choice is just the beginning. His instincts tell him to pick Ridge or Lieberman. That is because his instincts are not conservative. So when the conservtives freak out he backs off and picks a prolife guy. It is the same process that gave us Dan Quayle. But it is not a process that leads to 4 years of good government. The presidency is hard enough when you are running as yourself. It becomes impossible when you are trying to govern as someone you are not.
I think if McCain ditches the conservatism he is likely to end up policy wise close to where I am. That is moderate to liberal on many issues but conservative on social issues. I doubt that will happen but you never know. Bush Sr could not ignore the conservtives even after he got elected. They controlled the congress and he wanted a second term. Neither may apply to McCain. Congress is looking like it will be pretty liberal and McCain may well be satisfied with one term and a retiring at 76.
One key difference is how popular the incumbant president is. Reagan was somewhat diminished by Iran Contra but still pretty popular. Bush 43 is nowhere near as popular. Reagans second term election was a landslide. Bush 43 was never close to a landslide. So Bush 41’s strategy of pretending to be Reagan made sense. McCain’s strategy of pretending to be Bush seems quite questionable. Still, if he had open revolt from conservatives in the party he that would be no picnic either.
A pointed analysis: Sadly I think you are accurate here, McCain does not really believe what he says. Related to your intelligence post I think that this is is biggest deficit, not intellignce. Regan was no brain trust either but he knew what he knew and pushed the country that direction. I believe people like this are more successful than “thinkers” because they are results oriented. “Does this get me what I want”, the person asks himself? Obama may be a deep thinker but he certainly is a mover. If elected he will get what he wants with very little compromise. I wish I didn’t dislike him so much.
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:01 amAnyway, I doubt whether McCain know what he does not know. He trusts his instincts on foreign policy but they are often wrong. That is when things become dangerous. On the economy he is more clueless than Bush. That is hard to do but I do think he is that bad.
If he wins we may or may not gain on the pro-life front. What is more than certain is that Evangelicals will have given us another incompetent and immoral president. I don’t see that as helping the cause of Christ. I just pray the evangelicals eventually get something for their 30 years plus of supporting the Republicans. By throwing in their lot with Bush they have made many people atheists. I pray they get something for it.
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:33 am